Democrats oblivious to rising tide of unhappy voters may be shocked by Republican midterm wins
As the Republican wave crested on Tuesday, it was noticeable that the party of “family values” and “limited government” was far more popular than the Democrats. Yet, in the eyes of more than a few party strategists, this was the result of a lot of “mistakes” as well as a lot of luck. In fact, it appears that the majority of voters in the midterms were quite satisfied with their choice for president. According to Rasmussen Reports, just 35% of voters picked the Democrats for the 2018 elections and 46% were satisfied with their choice of president.
Rasmussen further found that only 25% of voters thought that the 2020 elections would result in a Democratic victory. That was a big decrease from the 45% who thought it would be won by the Democrats in 2018. However, if we take a look at the data from 2012 and 2014 and compare them to the midterm election results that they produced, we can see that we have one of the largest swings in support in the past quarter century.
For example, during the 2012 general election, just 43% of voters cast their ballot for the Democratic nominee and 49% for the Republican nominee (Rasmussen reported 49.9%, and NBC News reported 52.9%). However, this year, the Democrats were able to maintain a clear lead in the polls, while Republicans only managed to take a few seats in the House of Representatives, and gained no ground in the Senate.
While one may wonder if this was due to the quality of their candidates, or if voters were finally waking up to the fact that this country was in trouble, there is no question that the results of the midterms were significant. In fact, in the last midterm election, in 2006, there was an 18.7% swing towards the Democrats and another 14.9% swing towards the Republicans. However, in 2010, just eight seats were flipped, and there was a 7.8% swing towards the Republicans. In 2012, there was another 10.2% swing towards the Democrats, while only an 8.5% swing was achieved in 2014.
Perhaps it is now time for Republicans to do the math. Because of the fact that they lost the midterms, and will now have to govern with Democrats in the House of Representatives, they are likely to become more unpopular. To be blunt